By all accounts, tomorrow’s midterm elections will be a blood bath for the Democrats. More brutal than usual for the party in power.
I’m reminded of the great political strategist James Carville’s quote when he ran Bill Clinton’s 1992 presidential campaign. “It’s the economy, stupid.”
Wikipedia explains the phrase this way: His phrase was directed at the campaign’s workers and intended as one of three messages for them to focus on. The others were “Change vs. more of the same” and “Don’t forget health care.”
Clinton was running against the incumbent, George H.W. Bush. “Bush 41.” The President seemed out of touch with Americans. Not understanding of their day to day issues.
The Clinton campaign capitalized on that. They won.
I think we are there right now. As much as I think Americans care about abortion rights and other social issues… I think, right now, they care about filling their cars with gas and paying for their groceries.
On pocketbook issues, Republicans have the Democrats backed into a corner.
I could be really wrong on this. If I am, so are the pollsters. (It wouldn’t be the first time.) Right now, things just don’t feel right. I think a massive change is on the horizon.
There’s a new Washington Post-ABC News poll out that affirms all of this. The headline here: Republicans need to win a net of five seats to take control of the House. Democrats face overwhelming odds to prevent that from happening.
The Post-ABC poll also confirms that Republicans hold significant advantages on the “bread-and-butter issues of the economy and that are central concerns of this fall’s election.”
Here’s another thing… the poll shows that more Republicans are voting. 80 percent to 74 percent of Democrats.
There’s another Post poll that is troubling. A majority of Americans are worried about politically motivated violence. 88 percent of those polled were either “somewhat concerned” or “very concerned.”
After tomorrow, the political ads will end… for awhile. Then, what? We start getting ready for 2024. If you think this campaign has been tough, get ready.
And it’s starting to look as though former President Trump will make a run. He’s been hinting about it the last few days. In Iowa, Trump said he would, “very, very, very probably do it again.”
In south Florida, Trump said, “I will probably have to do it again, but stay tuned.” Insiders believe Trump will make the announcement after the mid-term elections.
The next question is will Florida Governor Ron DeSantis run against him? Assuming he wins re-election tomorrow, many think he will make a run for President.
Vanity Fair has a different take on this. One source says DeSantis won’t run if Trump does. Another says, “he could walk into the presidency in 2028 without pissing off Trump or Florida.”
VF reports that DeSantis is only 44 years old. He could easily wait out the next presidential cycle.
Donald Trump does seem to have his eye on Ron DeSantis. During a rally, he gave him one of his famous nicknames: “Ron DeSanctimonious.”
Look at me getting ahead of things. I really do need a break from politics. I probably won’t get much of one. None of us will. The cycle doesn’t end.